Friday, March 9, 2012
AUD
FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The Australian Dollar pared gains versus the Greenback at the beginning of the New York session appetite for risk assets tempered following worst-than-expected US jobless claims.
After hitting a 2-day high of 1.0667, AUD/USD lost momentum and has been steadily retreating from there within the last hours, sliding toward the 1.0595/00 zone most recently, where the 20-hour SMA is offering support to the cross.
At time of writing, AUD/USD is quoting at the 1.0600 area, where it still records a 0.2% gain in the global session. As for technical levels, below 1.0600 immediate supports are seen at 1.0580 and 1.0550, while resistances could be found at 1.0670, 1.0700 and 1.0740.
Thursday, March 8, 2012
AUD
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The Australian Dollar is on the move, with bears having taken full control once again following poor jobs numbers 'down under'.
In contrast to last month, when the country shocked markets by adding 46,300 persons and reducing the jobless rate to 5.1%, this time around, Feb stats show employment fell by over 15,000 vs +5,000 rise expected, while the unemployment rate got snapped back up to 5.2%.
The Aussie/US Dollar has plunged over 40 pips from 1.0580 session high to just print Asian lows at 1.0531. EUR/AUD has come up to test 1.2470.
Some traders will surely start speculating on the RBA engaging in easier policies after the recent collection of downbeat indicators in Australia, with the most alarming being yesterday's big miss on GDP numbers and today's jobs data; the scenario the RBA finds itself at present suggests it no longer vindicates their firm decision to hold rates for much longer.
Technically, “AUD/USD support is found at the top of the daily ichimoku cloud at 1.0497 and a break below that level could see a test of key support between 1.0400/10 where the 38.2 fibo of the 0.9664/1.0857 move and the 200-day MA are found” comments John Noonan, Head of IFR Markets.
In contrast to last month, when the country shocked markets by adding 46,300 persons and reducing the jobless rate to 5.1%, this time around, Feb stats show employment fell by over 15,000 vs +5,000 rise expected, while the unemployment rate got snapped back up to 5.2%.
The Aussie/US Dollar has plunged over 40 pips from 1.0580 session high to just print Asian lows at 1.0531. EUR/AUD has come up to test 1.2470.
Some traders will surely start speculating on the RBA engaging in easier policies after the recent collection of downbeat indicators in Australia, with the most alarming being yesterday's big miss on GDP numbers and today's jobs data; the scenario the RBA finds itself at present suggests it no longer vindicates their firm decision to hold rates for much longer.
Technically, “AUD/USD support is found at the top of the daily ichimoku cloud at 1.0497 and a break below that level could see a test of key support between 1.0400/10 where the 38.2 fibo of the 0.9664/1.0857 move and the 200-day MA are found” comments John Noonan, Head of IFR Markets.
Wednesday, March 7, 2012
AUD
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The Australian Dollar has come under pressure once again after the latest GDP Q4 for 2011 outstripped worst expectations, showing a read of 0.4% vs 0.8% expected, a big miss indeed. Y/Y GDP was 2.3% against expectations of a 2.4% rise.. AUD/USD has lost over 50 pips in no time, printing a new 6-week low at 1.0520. Immediate support comes at 1.0500 round number ahead of 1.0480, static support. "A sustained move below support at 1.0525 targets a move towards the 200-day MA at 1.0405/10" explains John Noonan, Head of IFR Markets.
Tuesday, March 6, 2012
EUR
(Reuters) - The euro crept back from a two-week low on Monday as profit-taking in the dollar offset data highlighting the diverging paths of the U.S. and European economies.
But fears over Greece's progress in completing a debt- restructuring deal were expected to keep the single currency under pressure this week. In addition, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao's reduction in his country's annual growth target to 7.5 percent, the lowest rate in eight years, also highlighted concerns about the global economy.
The Australian and New Zealand dollars, which are closely correlated with global growth, slumped.
China's central bank governor, Zhou Xiaochuan, meanwhile, told the official Xinhua news agency on Monday that China will allow the yuan exchange rate to float in a wider range.
A sharp downturn in business activity in Spain and Italy dragged the euro zone's private sector back into decline last month, while growth in the vast U.S. services sector accelerated in February to its fastest pace in a year.
The euro fell to $1.3158, its lowest level since February 17, after the release of dismal euro-zone data. That level represented a key technical support, the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the euro's January 24 high of $1.3486.
"When you come to this pivotal area, it needs a catalyst to push it through. But we are drifting here until further headlines so traders are playing the technicals," said Eric Viloria, senior currency strategist at Forex.com in New York.
The euro rebounded to trade up 0.1 percent at
$1.3219 in late New York activity .
With many investors nervous about Greece's bond swap and uncertainty about the level of private participation, the euro will likely remain below the January 24 peak.
"I would not read too much into the euro's bounce as there are plenty of headwinds this week," said Charles St-Arnaud, foreign exchange strategist at Nomura Securities in New York.
This week features 10 global central bank meetings, including those of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. In the United States, Friday's release of the monthly jobs report will be a major driver of risk appetite.
Nervousness over whether Greece will complete a bond exchange with private creditors by the Thursday deadline, which is critical to securing a 130-billion-euro ($172 billion) bailout deal and avoiding a messy debt default, should keep the euro under pressure this week.
"Having topped up at around $1.35, the euro is likely to drift lower with the new range likely to be at $1.25-1.30," said Steve Barrow, head of G10 currency research at Standard Bank.
Monday, March 5, 2012
AUD
Although the AUD flirted again with the 1.0800 level on Friday evening the recent news flow has been fairly light as increasingly better economic news comes out of the US and recent European PMI's were slightly better than expected.
Last week saw European banks take up EUR529.5bn of 3 year funding at 1% from the ECB which was on the higher side of analysts' estimates.
Equity markets on Friday in Europe and the US were virtually flat as the USD was stronger and oil prices fell 2% for the first time in the last four weeks. On the weekend we learned that Chinese banks increased their lending in the first two months of 2012 perhaps in response to recent cuts in the reserves they must keep with the central bank.
Friday, March 2, 2012
AUD
The AUD continues to be well supported due to firmer equity markets and improved risk appetite following the larger take up on the European banks in the LTRO the other day. The AUD is also strong on the cross rates with the AUD/EUR trading above 0.8100 while the AUD/JPY is just under the 88.00 level. Goldincreased following yesterday's sharp dip encouraged some buying increasing 1.4% to close at USD 1,721.30.
Base metals mostly increased with Copper rising 1.5% on the improved Chinese data whilst soft commodities were mixed. Brent Crude rose above $126 a barrel overnight as solid US data and Chinese data showing stronger than expected factory growth in February along with continued Middle East tensions drove expectations of strong oil demand.
Thursday, March 1, 2012
AUD
The Australian dollar (Currency:AUD) and the New Zealand dollar (Currency:NZD) continue to bit chunks out of sterling.
The pound Australian dollar exchange rate is 0.44% lower at 1.4698, the pound New Zealand dollar exchange rate is 0.57% lower at 1.8877.
The Australian dollar is on the front foot once again this morning, this after sterling managed to trade sideways against the AUD earlier, amid mixed data from the Australian economy.
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