Friday, March 16, 2012

AUD


SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--A stronger U.S. dollar continued to push the Australian dollar lower Thursday in an Asia trading session bereft of any top tier data or fresh news flow.
At 0440 GMT, the Australian dollar was trading at US$1.0462 from US$1.0545 late Wednesday, and Y88.0105 from Y87.77.
Empowering the U.S. dollar was this week's acknowledgement by the Federal Reserve that the U.S. economy is continuing to improve.
"Rather than being a broader market risk rally, the reduced need for quantitative easing and U.S. dollar gains are depressing gold and other commodities," said FX Strategists at NAB.
"For the moment then we see little reason why the USD will not continue to push slowly higher," NAB said.
With news flow from Europe ebbing, analysts said U.S. data will be the main focus later. New York and Philadelphia Purchasing Managers Indexes are due as are producer prices, jobless claims and data on foreign holdings of Treasury bonds.
ANZ strategists sounded a cautious note on the Aussie and said it's vulnerable to a short-term slowdown.
"Estimates of US$1.03 are plausible in the event of a mild slowing, while a substantial slowing, or one centered heavily on China, would see AUD down to US$0.9800," strategists at the bank wrote.
Michael Manetta, an economist at Roubini Global Economics said Australia's economy will likely miss its growth targets and the government will struggle to return to a promised budget surplus in the next fiscal year.
He is tipping a rate cut by the Preserve Bank of Australia in April and a second one shortly after.
"We are expecting at least two more rate cuts," said Manetta. "We think (the RBA) was overly optimistic of their assessment of the economy in February and we think there's going to be a realisation of that."


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