AUD

SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--A stronger U.S. dollar continued to push the Australian dollar lower Thursday in an Asia trading session bereft of any top tier data or fresh news flow.

At 0440 GMT, the Australian dollar was trading at US$1.0462 from US$1.0545 late Wednesday, and Y88.0105 from Y87.77.

Empowering the U.S. dollar was this week's acknowledgement by the Federal Reserve that the U.S. economy is continuing to improve.

"Rather than being a broader market risk rally, the reduced need for quantitative easing and U.S. dollar gains are depressing gold and other commodities," said FX Strategists at NAB.

"For the moment then we see little reason why the USD will not continue to push slowly higher," NAB said.

With news flow from Europe ebbing, analysts said U.S. data will be the main focus later. New York and Philadelphia Purchasing Managers Indexes are due as are producer prices, jobless claims and data on foreign holdings of Treasury bonds.

ANZ strategists sounded a cautious note on the Aussie and said it's vulnerable to a short-term slowdown.

"Estimates of US$1.03 are plausible in the event of a mild slowing, while a substantial slowing, or one centered heavily on China, would see AUD down to US$0.9800," strategists at the bank wrote.

Michael Manetta, an economist at Roubini Global Economics said Australia's economy will likely miss its growth targets and the government will struggle to return to a promised budget surplus in the next fiscal year.

He is tipping a rate cut by the Preserve Bank of Australia in April and a second one shortly after.

"We are expecting at least two more rate cuts," said Manetta. "We think (the RBA) was overly optimistic of their assessment of the economy in February and we think there's going to be a realisation of that."

USD AUD

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Forward-looking indicators of the global industrial cycle suggest economic momentum should pause or ease in the first half of 2012, according to ANZ Macro Strategy Team: "The rebalancing of growth in China, which is reportedly already underway, also suggests some slowing, although a repeat of the disappointingly deep slow down of 2011 is not expected, but a temporary pause in the manufacturing cycle appears possible."

The Australian Dollar, battered against the US Dollar recently, should base now above the 1.0300 level in the event of a modest slowdown in global economies, note Tim Riddell and Andrew Salter, Head of Golbal Market Research and FX strategist at ANZ. In this environment the Australian dollar's appreciation would slow. The question concerning markets is where will it base in the near term?

"Given the correlation with indicators of the industrial cycle, we might expect it to ease as far as US1.0350 on a monthly average basis if the slow down is modest, as we expect. If it is a slowdown of the kind witnessed in 2011, or one centered more specifically in China, and the AUD experiences a somewhat deeper correction, technical indicators suggest that a re-test of long-term support above USD0.98 would ensue" the analysts observe.

The analysts conclude: "Looking further ahead we are optimistic that the currency will see levels of USD1.10 in the medium term. The high level of commodity price, the wide interest rate available to offshore investors, and the notable changes occurring in developed economies with regards to expanding money supplies and changing credit ratings will all conspire to see the currency strong over the medium term."

AUD

SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--The Australian dollar rose Tuesday amid quiet news flow, but dealers were merely treading water ahead of a U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting, the outcome of which could determine near-term sentiment.

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee isn't expected to alter policy but market participants will be looking for whether its language suggests a third round of quantitative easing remains an option.

"Any hints that Bernanke is backing away from QE3 would likely be interpreted as USD-positive," said NAB FX Strategist Emma Lawson.

"However, bear in mind that it was only the last meeting that the Fed pushed back its [interest] rate hike guidance to 'late 2014.' So it may be too early to expect the Fed to give any ground on this," Lawson said.

At 0511 GMT, the Australian dollar was trading at US$1.0555 from US$1.0520 late Monday, and Y86.583 from Y86.58.

The currency broadly ignored soft home loans numbers and a dip in business confidence.

Housing-finance approvals in Australia fell a seasonally adjusted 1.2% in January from December, the Bureau of Statistics said. And National Australia Bank's monthly business confidence index fell to +1 point in February from +4 points in January, though business conditions rose 1 point to +3 points.

"The latest figures suggest that the economy is largely running on the spot with new home loans going backwards and businesses lacking the confidence to ramp up activity," said Craig James, chief economist at CommSec.

Joseph Capurso, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia expects the Australian dollar to trade at EUR0.8500 by the middle of 2012 largely because of interest rate differentials, compared with EUR0.8014 at 0543 GMT.

"The two year spread on government bond yields between Australia and Germany is currently very high and supportive of AUD/EUR. We expect the yield spread to move further in Australia's favour in coming months," Capurso said in a research note.

On the flip side, a strategist at Westpac Bank expects the Australian dollar to lose ground against the single currency.

"The case is growing for AUD/EUR having finally topped out with its failed attempts last month above 0.8200," strategist Sean Callow wrote in a research note.

"Since we expect both the Australian dollar and euro to lose ground versus the U.S. dollar, the scale of decline should be limited, but with notable European risk hurdles cleared and positioning a significant weight on the pair, AUD/EUR looks a sell above 0.81, sighting 0.78 multi-week," Callow wrote.

USD/AUD

FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - The Australian dollar managed to gain on the U.S. Dollar Tuesday as the greenback sold off mildly in favor of higher yielding currencies and risk-correlated assets after the FOMC statement late in the global day.

AUD/USD bounced from session extremes around 1.0485 to levels back near the highs of the day before slight pullback to close at 1.0550, 35 pips above its starting price. In early Asia, the pair is under gentle pressure as it trades down 1.0535. To the upside, immediate resistance lies at 1.0567 (1 Feb low), while, to the downside, support lies at 1.0508 (7 Mar low). 

USD

The single currency started the week on a weak note especially during the early Asian session sliding to a fresh low of 1.3077. But it covered the losses during the late Asian session and early European session. The pair is currently trading around 1.3113, almost flat for the day. The support may be seen at 1.3080 and below at 1.3000 levels. The resistance may be seen at 1.3160 and above 1.3220. Wholesale price index from Germany came as expected at 1% month over month.

Unlike Euro, sterling pound failed to gather a momentum and it continued its downward run to form a fresh low of 1.5608. The pair is currently trading around 1.5630, down about quarter of a percent for the day. The bearish outlook opens up the possibility of breaking of 1.5600 levels significantly. The support may be seen at 1.5600 and below at 1.5560. The resistance may be seen at 1.5660 and above at 1.5710 levels.

 

The USD/CHF pair managed to close the last week near the 0.9200 levels. It started the week on a positive note and went above the 0.9200 levels to form a fresh high of 0.9217. But it failed to hold the 0.9200 levels and has come below it. It is currently trading around 0.9192, almost flat for the day. The resistance may be seen at 0.9200 and above at 0.9250. The support may be seen at 0.9150 and below at 0.9125 levels.

 

The USD/JPY has come off the recent highs and trading in red for most part of the day. The pair is currently trading around 82.20, down about 0.37% for the day. The resistance may be seen at 82.65 and 83 levels while the support may be seen at the current levels and below at 81.90 levels.

The trade deficit report from China has impacted the Australian dollar and the it is currently trading at 1.0514, down about half a percent against the US dollar. The low for the day so far is formed at 1.0508. The support may be seen at 1.0500 and below at 1.0450. The resistance may be seen at 1.0560 and 1.0610 levels.

AUD

The AUD has since stabilised above the USD1.0500, to be currently trading at USD1.0515. Despite a fairly uneventful overnight session with little data released, the AUD took a tumble from yesterday's high of USD1.0580. Commodity prices were the main driver, with gold down almost 1%, copper down 0.6% and aluminium down 0.5%.

The poor Chinese trade data released over the weekend can also be to blame, with the growth in the regions exports falling well below market expectations.

The trade deficit of USD31.5bio is the largest that has been seen in 12 years and while a deficit was expected, it was the figure that surprised the market; especially given the surplus recorded just last month. During our trading session today, the NAB Business Survey is due to be released as well as the housing finance for January. It is expected that despite the rate cuts experienced in both November and December we will see a modest decrease in the housing figures.

AUD

FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - The Australian dollar is markedly lower against the greenback at the start of Monday trading, largely on disappointing trade data out of China over the weekend as well as a strong U.S. jobs report on Friday which gave the USD broad strength.

From a technical standpoint, "The 4 hours chart shows price below 20 SMA and RSI heading south below 50 although momentum indicator is flat above 100; the mixed picture favors the downside although selling pressure seems not to be enough yet," comments Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXstreet.com. "A stronger downward acceleration is expected once 1.0530 support gives up."

At time of writing, AUD/USD has moved down into the 1.0550 area as trading in Tokyo gets underway, down from 1.0568 late Friday. Farther to the downside, support levels are seen at 1.0530, 1.0490 and 1.0440, with resistance levels noted at 1.0610, 1.0630 and 1.0670, says Ms. Bednarik.